Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said that if the Liberals win the federal election, Mark Carney will need to repair some of the damage in his party’s relationship with her province.AMBER BRACKEN/The New York Times News Service
A majority of Canadians across regions and demographic groups say that talk about Western sovereignty should be taken seriously, according to new polling by Nanos Research.
The research found that three in five Canadians think such talk should be taken seriously (32 per cent) or somewhat seriously (30 per cent).
Also, Conservatives are more likely to say the talk should be taken seriously (49 per cent) or somewhat seriously (22 per cent) compared with Liberal voters (seriously, 22 per cent; somewhat seriously, 34 per cent).
It also found that six in 10 Canadians think this election is a poor or very poor time for federal party leaders to talk about provinces wanting to separate from Canada. One in three think it’s a very good or good time to do so.
Nik Nanos, the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, says the results highlight that the federal election is not just about managing the binational relationship or change from the past, but that the very federation may be at stake.
“This also aligns with the stark East-West division in ballot support with the Liberals doing well in Eastern Canada and the Conservatives being strong in Western Canada,” Mr. Nanos said in a statement.
He cited a broader context of U.S. President Donald Trump musing about Canada becoming the 51st state, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith vigorously defending her province’s interests even if it meant a schism with other premiers and Preston Manning, the Reform Party founder, musing about the negative fallout of another Liberal government.
“Roll all this up and the anxiety about Western separation is more real than it ever has been,” Mr. Nanos wrote.
The polling found that 63.5 per cent of respondents in the Prairies said the talk of western separatism should be taken seriously or somewhat seriously, compared with 61.6 per cent in Ontario and 63.5 per cent in Quebec.
In a recent column in The Globe and Mail, Mr. Manning, referring to Liberal Leader Mark Carney, wrote that voters, particularly those in Central and Atlantic Canada, “need to recognize that a vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession – a vote for the breakup of Canada as we know it.”
Carney calls Manning’s comments about Western separatism unhelpful
The former official opposition leader said Western secession is a populist movement that Central Canada has never anticipated or understood, and which is now centred in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
“But it has the potential to spread to most of B.C., Manitoba and the adjacent territories depending on how it is organized and led.”
Former Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow and Anne McLellan, a former Edmonton MP and deputy prime minister, pushed back on Mr. Manning’s views in their own Globe column.
“As two people who have served their respective Western provinces for many years, we know that we are not alone in disagreeing with Mr. Manning’s attempt to threaten voters in ‘Central and Atlantic Canada’ and foment division across our great country,” they wrote.
“The suggestion that Westerners’ commitment to Canada is in any way conditional is offensive.”
Last week, the Alberta Premier said that if the Liberals win the federal election later this month, Mr. Carney will need to repair some of the damage in his party’s relationship with her province.
Ms. Smith, speaking at the conference of the Canada Strong and Free Network founded by Mr. Manning, was asked by reporters if a Liberal win would threaten national unity. In response, she said, “We’re going to have to see what the reaction of Albertans [is].”
The Nanos poll surveyed 1,345 people from April 11 to 13. It is considered accurate to within 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Respondents were asked the following question: “Do you think talk of Western separatist movements in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan should be taken seriously, somewhat seriously, somewhat not seriously or not seriously?”
They were also asked: “Is this election a very good, good, poor or very poor time for the federal party leaders to talk about provinces wanting to separate from Canada?” The full methodology for all surveys can be found at: tgam.ca/polls.