People gather in support of Alberta becoming a 51st state during a rally at the Legislature in Edmonton, on May 3.JASON FRANSON/The Canadian Press
Nearly a quarter of people in Alberta see themselves as Albertans first, and Canadians second. And one in 10 believe their province would be economically stronger as part of the U.S., while another two in 10 favour a future as an independent country, a poll conducted in the wake of the federal election has found.
Support for a sovereignty referendum has surged in Western Canada after an election that brought the Liberal Party back into power nationally, despite the party winning only three of 51 seats in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
In Alberta, organizers say more than 100,000 people added their names last week to an online register of those willing to vote for separation from Canada. In Saskatchewan, advocates for secession are collecting signatures in hopes of a similar plebiscite on independence there. Premiers of both provinces have held open the possibility of citizen-led initiatives to force referendum votes.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she will deliver a live address Monday “on the province’s path forward with the federal government” following a caucus meeting of her United Conservative Party.
Hundreds rally at Alberta legislature to support separation from Canada
In Ottawa, Liberal strategists have grown worried that a loudly fractious Western secession movement could weaken Canada‘s position as it seeks to negotiate new deals with the White House under Donald Trump, who has repeatedly said he favours the annexation of Canada.
But the poll, conducted by Nanos for The Globe and Mail, suggests that the separatist forces in Alberta, while voluble, command the support of only a small fraction of the population.
Far more of those polled – 64 per cent – said Alberta would be better off inside Canada, more than double the fraction who said they believe their province would be stronger alone or as part of the U.S.
And while 22 per cent said they identify primarily as Albertan, more than three-quarters see themselves as Canadian, or as Canadian from Alberta.
In fact, the Nanos poll last week showed support for an Alberta-first identity at a level below what was found in a 2020 Environics survey that asked similar questions. That earlier poll found 28 per cent of Albertans said they saw themselves as either Albertans first, or Albertans alone.
The Nanos poll also found that 38 per cent of Albertans emerged from the election with negative views on the future of Canada – but they were slightly outnumbered by the 40 per cent who came away with a positive outlook.
And while 35 per cent said a Conservative majority would bolster Canadian unity, an identical percentage said a Liberal majority or minority would be best. (A further 7 per cent indicated a preference for a Conservative minority.)
Western discontent is a growing problem after Liberal election victory
The poll suggests that the intensity of secessionist sentiment in the province – which appears sufficiently strong to force a referendum under a lowered threshold proposed last week by Ms. Smith – is set against a much larger feeling of continued loyalty to Canada.
The Nanos poll, which surveyed 432 Albertans using a hybrid telephone and online random survey, is considered accurate to 4.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
Roughly one in three voters in Edmonton and Calgary opted for the Liberals in last week’s election, although the party captured just one seat in each city. Eleanor Olszewski in Edmonton Centre and Corey Hogan in Calgary Confederation will represent ridings that reflect much of Alberta and Canada: split.
As the only two Liberals elected in the province, they will become the de facto government representatives for Albertans who live beyond the borders of their ridings.
Alberta‘s separatist angst is dominating the province’s politics, but Mr. Hogan does not plan to tiptoe around would-be secessionists.
“We’ve got a wonderful country,” Mr. Hogan said in an interview last week at a vibrant coffee shop in his Crescent Heights neighbourhood. “And if you like this country, you should fight for this country. And while there is frustration out there, we don’t need to give in to that frustration.”
Ms. Olszewski, like Mr. Hogan, said she expects to serve as a translator between Ottawa and Alberta, making sure messages between the two are not scrambled in transmission.
The Edmonton litigator, in an interview Sunday, said she thinks Prime Minister Mark Carney‘s strategy to jump-start economic growth will help repair the relationship between Ottawa and Alberta.
“Albertans are very concerned about energy projects,” she said. “Mark Carney is committed to reducing red tape and reducing project review time.”
At least some of Albertans’ anger has been directed toward former prime minister Justin Trudeau, who was seen as by some as callous toward Western priorities – and by others as actively stymying the economic progress of regions dependent on fossil fuel production.
For Dorothy Hofsink, whose family runs a farm raising chickens and hops outside of Taber, Mr. Trudeau came across as someone who thought Albertans are “just a bunch of rednecks,” she said.
While the Liberals won nearly 28 per cent of votes in Alberta – the highest percentage since 1968 – Conservatives bolstered their dominance, with nearly two-thirds of all ballots cast this election, up from 55 per cent four years ago. The fact that the party won all but three seats in the province is an indication that “nobody is happy,” Ms. Hofsink said.
“I don’t think he likes us,” she said of Mr. Trudeau. She has little hope for better from Mr. Carney. Her husband woke up the morning after the election with a more pointed lament: “I hate Canada,” he told Ms. Hofsink. “What’s wrong with us?”
Such sentiment, however, is far from universal.
In nearby Medicine Hat, Gunnar Grove is learning to pilot a Cessna 172. He is 19, a southern Alberta farm kid pursuing a career in the skies, and he can’t fathom the way some of his friends have begun to talk about the idea of voting their way out of Canada.
“I just think it’s so silly that people think, ‘This is it. This is the breaking point. You’ve got to separate,’” he said. “There’s just so many worse-off places.”
Mr. Grove figures life got better under Mr. Trudeau. “For me, my family - we do good enough,” he said.
Others say they believe a secession vote makes sense as a negotiating strategy.
“I support a better conversation starting in Canada,” said Shaun Newman, a former hockey player in Lloydminster whose podcast regularly features people in Alberta advocating independence. “Right now, a referendum as far as I can tell doesn’t mean Alberta‘s out the next day. It’s just like the first domino in a thousand.”
At “any point Carney and the Canadian government could offer Alberta a better deal and we just stay,” he said. But he is also aware that a number of Albertans have grown embittered, and hardened to the idea of talking it out.
“The emotion blinds people, and they just want out,” he said.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Conservatives won all but two seats in Alberta. They won all but three seats in the province. This version has been updated.